This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with 2 name fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to having PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few strong GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entry using $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favorite contests to pursue so I will be taking some shots in that. Aside from that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will find a fantastic amount of play in games. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the easiest money game punt of all time in $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Decision is currently -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds from JJ with the striking volume she puts out then we have a good floor there and it doesn’t matter if she loses or wins. At that price tag she allows you to cover up for a few heavy favorites and if we can get 4 other spots to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ within our lineup then we’ll be sitting quite pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP drama of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Decision is presently lined at -495 for this fight. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this struggle gets hauled out within 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes at one 10-point dip down. If that may be in the 1st round, then you are currently at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that is more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so he can’t have much time in the match left. I believe we function together with the favored here and throw him into our GPP lineups and wait for the fireworks.
Underdog drama of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week because of his wrestling/grappling potential. In addition, I think he’s a underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s really what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he has never knocked anybody out, so I think we’ve got a solid floor here at $7.3k even though this struggle does stay standing since I don’t see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of the two though and I believe he lands several takedowns in this battle and may win a choice using a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes in a 57% precision, and if he is becoming bogged up on the toes I’m certain that he is going to be going for much greater than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a solid play in all formats and I believe he has a split decision win here since the street underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week , but the individual I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I do not believe she can win, because she for certain can, and I believe she does. However, I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I believe we’d need a finish from her in this struggle to receive 10x that wages and I believe that is quite unlikely to take place. Or, she will want FightMetric to count all of her screams as important strikes. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her career is 83 DK points which has been against Irene Aldana who sets a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here then still wouldn’t be sufficient here to place her in the winning lineup at her $8.7k price label. I think if you’re earning 20 or less lineups this Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she’s a triumph it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and also give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my select forecasts, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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