This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and I am ready to win some money on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC introduction so it is always nice when you are already familiar with all the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions are not the greatest, but there is still a great deal of money to be obtained. I’ll be chasing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at these huge prizes. Listed below are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I’ll be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC fights have all been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those kinds of fights are great for DraftKings. Notably cash games since we can lock at a win and get all the points in the best battle on the card. Normally 4 wins will find the business done in cash games and we’ll get over 100 points with this fight. But with that win locked in, we just have to find 3 others we feel great about.
GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s challenging to want to pay $9.5k to get a man like Barberena when you can just pay an additional $200 to find a -1000 preferred in Anders. However, I think that is what most people will do and that is what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we will get him at a somewhat lower ownership as a consequence of his massive salary, and he has an excellent shot at getting a 1st round triumph. If he can get a 1st round KO afterward he’ll have at least 100 points so he’ll pay off that large salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, then I think you should find some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his older self. I believe Barberena does pick up an end inside this fight so I will throw him some GPPs and hope he’s beneath owned.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the effortless worth play of the week. Presently, Fili is the gambling popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I really like taking that value when it is available so I presume he is in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with the value we are getting on himbut I am willing to consume that chalk and that I don’t want to get burnt by completely fading that value. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps with his wrestling I think he will have a good chance at winning this fight. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ although not by a lot. At $7.5k we don’t require a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass up on this respect and I think he’s the simple underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my personal bias but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in some of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has just went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to attack. I believe that this will be a striking battle as well and I think that it’s going to be closer than the chances signal. At $8.9k I believe we will require a finish from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and that I really don’t see that occurring. If you do think Dober can find a KO, then you should be playing him. I will only be paying up elsewhere because I’m not sure he can find that finish and that I would not be shocked if he even lost the fight. I will say that I never look to use Dober at DraftKings, therefore I could get burned again here but I am going to stick with my Dober fade and he’ll be my fade of the week for UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my private strategies & recommendations, and also my selection prediction for every fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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